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Google Foresaw Mousavi’s Win

Author: Gabriel Goldenberg, June 24, 2009

See here for details: #Iran Election: “Mousavi likely winner” – Google Trends.

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Comments

  1. Google Trends will only show you what Iran’s ‘twittering classes’ are searching for. Not the population at large – big difference.

    For an alternative view, may I suggest these two articles – from a non-partisan viewpoint (unlike most of the coverage thus far).

    http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090615_western_misconceptions_meet_iranian_reality

    http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090622_iranian_election_and_revolution_test

    I do enjoy your articles, but to cite Google Trends as fact regarding Iranian sentiment (even in only Tehran), is very weak and wildly inaccurate IMO.

    By the way, I’m not Iranian and I’ve no personal stake in the election.. nor am I affiliated with Stratfor. I just feel their analysis is worth a read before jumping to conclusions based on unrepresentative data.

    Sharif

    Reply

    Gabriel Goldenberg Reply:
    June 25th, 2009 at 12:57 pm

    You’re partly right that the Twittering classes don’t represent Iran 100%, but after reading George Friedman’s articles at Stratfor, I remain unconvinced Ahmadinejad won. Here’s why:

    - Tehran had extremely high voter turnout in 2009, whereas in 2005 it was anemic. The difference was the students and reformists going to the polls. Yet supposedly Ahmadinejad won Tehran. That’s extremely unlikely, especially as Khatami took it back in the day.
    - Friedman claims that there are no other uprisings elsewhere. Yet he himself makes the mistake he accuses everyone else of making in that case. He relies on what a Western journalist can find out, when Western journalists are confined to Tehran and communications throughout the country are cut.
    - Juan Cole and others have documented a whole slew of indications that Ahmadinejad lost. George Friedman conveniently doesn’t try to rebut them, but just says that he doesn’t see how Ahmadinejad could have committed so much fraud. That’s like saying you trust Hitler not to lie, because you can’t imagine him as anything but an upstanding citizen.

    Reply

    Sharif Reply:
    June 25th, 2009 at 6:26 pm

    Thanks for the response; fair points, yes. For now it seems the status quo might still be maintained. We shall see I guess.

    Reply

    Gabriel Goldenberg Reply:
    June 26th, 2009 at 1:42 am

    My pleasure – I enjoy interacting with commentators who make intelligent, critical thinking criticism while keeping things polite. I’d love to hear from you on other posts, Sharif!

    BTW, I forgot to mention on point 2: Iranians did tweet that protests and such were happening elsewhere, but it’s impossible to report on them…

    Comment by Sharif — June 25, 2009 @ 4:16 am

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